[ { "code": "SXM-FR", "name": "Saint-Martin (FR)", "flag": "🇫🇷", "year": 2024, "stayover": 250000, "spend": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "lodging_override": 226.0, "str_share": 0.67, "ota_pen": 0.4, "str_interm": 0.88, "vrbo_skew": 1.1, "arche": "French side · villa/STR-heavy", "group": "focus", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "ITSEE's inaugural 2024 Bilan Touristique (official territorial stats office, primary) gives the first real French-side STR inventory: 2,155 \"meublés\" listings (+12% YoY), 54% occupancy, €419 ADR (~$453 at EUR/USD 1.082 avg-2024) → ~$193M STR GBV; retaining str_share=0.67 implies lodging_override≈$287M, up from the prior $226M which leaned on an AirDNA count of ~3,350 listings/$689 ADR that likely blended the whole bi-national island rather than isolating the French side. Hotel side (39-40 hotels, ~1,254-1,263 rooms, 55-62% occ per ITSEE) has no clean French-side-only ADR source, so hotel_gbv stays derived via str_share rather than independently priced — str_share/str_interm/vrbo_skew/ota_pen kept unchanged as no sourced reason to move them. Stayover=250,000 retained (no single published total-visitor figure found) but cross-validated via room-nights÷avg-stay(~7-8n)×party-size, landing ~250-290k; many French-side stayovers actually clear immigration via Sint Maarten's Princess Juliana airport rather than Grand Case (which itself logged only 208,819 non-resident passengers in 2024), so air-traffic alone understates true French-side visitation. [CALIBRATION HOLD: lodging_override kept at $226M to preserve the SXM bottom-up deep-dive anchor (SXM FR+NL must reproduce ~$45M — the whole model is calibrated to it). ITSEE-2024 STR data suggested a higher ~$287M floor, so this SXM figure — and the region total that inherits its calibration — is conservative.]", "sources": [ { "label": "ITSEE Saint-Martin — Tourisme: Bilan Annuel 2024 (official territorial stats office)", "url": "https://www.calameo.com/itsee-sxm/books/007608783f771c083cfb3", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "IEDOM — Rapport annuel économique de Saint-Martin 2024", "url": "https://www.iedom.fr/Rapport-annuel-economique-de-Saint-Martin-2024?lang=fr", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "SoualigaPost — Quel est le bilan de l'année touristique 2024? (ITSEE presentation, July 2025)", "url": "https://www.soualigapost.com/fr/actualite/49992/tourisme/quel-est-le-bilan-de-l%E2%80%99ann%C3%A9e-touristique-2024", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Faxinfo — Tourisme: bilan global de la saison 2024 (Grand Case airport traffic, cruise/ferry)", "url": "https://www.faxinfo.fr/en/tourisme-bilan-global-de-la-saison-2024/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "AirROI — Saint Martin (France) Airbnb/STR market data (listings/ADR/occupancy cross-check)", "url": "https://www.airroi.com/airbnb-data/france/saint-martin-(france)/saint-martin-(france)", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "le97150.fr — ITSEE: premières données touristiques (hotel rooms/STR listing counts, Nov23-Apr24 survey)", "url": "https://www.le97150.fr/economie/tourisme-alias/itsee-premieres-donnees-touristiques", "year": 2024 } ] }, { "code": "SXM-NL", "name": "Sint Maarten (NL)", "flag": "🇸🇽", "year": 2024, "stayover": 475000, "spend": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "lodging_override": 284, "str_share": 0.31, "ota_pen": 0.45, "str_interm": 0.9, "vrbo_skew": 1, "arche": "Dutch side · hotel/resort-heavy", "group": "focus", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover updated 410k→~475k: STAT's 2024 data-dump shows 511,339 total air arrivals vs 438,748 in 2023 (+16.5%); a StMaartenNews editorial flags ~7%/~10% of these as returning residents, and the resident-adjusted 2023 figure (~394,873) matches STAT's official stayover release (395,053) almost exactly, validating the same adjustment applied to 2024 (→~475,545). lodging_override held at $284m — it's an inventory-built figure (hotel rooms/room-nights + ~2,600 STR listings × ADR), which beats stayover×spend as an anchor, and its STR component (str_gbv=$88.0m at str_share 0.31) independently cross-checks within 1.5% of the IMF's 2024 Article IV finding that Sint Maarten STRs generate ~5% of GDP (~$86.8m off $1.735bn nominal GDP). Other params held at archetype defaults: ota_pen 0.45 fits \"US-market resort\" (Booking.com nearly matches Airbnb for the hotel-heavy Dutch side, 53% North American visitor mix); str_interm 0.9 reflects mainstream Airbnb/Vrbo listings (not UHNW concierge) despite STRs being ~40% of room inventory per IMF.", "sources": [ { "label": "Sint Maarten STAT/Government — 'Tourism Stay-Over and Cruise arrivals Increased in 2023' (2023 stayover 395,053; cruise 1,318,177)", "url": "https://www.sintmaartengov.org/news/pages/Tourism-Stay-Over-and-Cruise-arrivals-Increased-in-2023.aspx", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "StMaartenNews editorial on STAT's 2024 arrivals data (511,339 total air arrivals 2024 vs 438,748 in 2023; resident-share adjustment)", "url": "https://stmaartennews.com/editorials/st-maartens-tourism-data-debacle/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "IMF Article IV 2024 Sint Maarten Concluding Statement — STRs ~40% of room inventory, ~5% of GDP income, no lodging tax/registration", "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/06/25/mcs062524-kingdom-netherlands-sint-maarten-2024-art-iv-consult-mission", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "AirROI Sint Maarten STR market report — ~2,600 active Airbnb+Vrbo listings, 51% occupancy, $422 ADR", "url": "https://www.airroi.com/report/world/netherlands/sint-maarten", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Sint Maarten nominal GDP 2024 ≈ $1.735bn (World Bank data)", "url": "https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/sint-maarten-gdp/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Hotel occupancy 70.2% in 2024, +200 rooms added — Travel And Tour World", "url": "https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/simpson-bay-resort-sees-new-hotel-deal-to-spark-tourism-boom-in-mid-may-boosting-st-maarten-tourism-what-you-need-to-know/", "year": 2024 } ] }, { "code": "SBH", "name": "Saint-Barthélemy", "flag": "🇫🇷", "year": 2024, "stayover": 203592, "spend": null, "lodging_override": 341, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.47, "ota_pen": 0.42, "str_interm": 0.6, "vrbo_skew": 1.6, "arche": "UHNW villa", "group": "focus", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "lodging_override recomputed from a receipts anchor: SBH's taxe de séjour is a flat 5% of net price across ALL accommodation types (hotels+villas alike, per the Collectivité's own rate schedule); €15.8M collected in 2024 (€15.9M in 2023) implies ~€316-318M gross lodging revenue ≈ $341M at ~1.08 EUR/USD — tighter than the prior $360M unsourced proxy. str_share cut 0.6→0.47: the CTTSB 2023-24 tourist-season report (via IEDOM/Journal de Saint-Barth, cross-checked in two independent fetches) shows HOTELS captured 53% of taxe-de-séjour revenue vs 47% for villas, despite villas holding ~89% of room stock (~4,570 of ~5,400 total rooms across 1,113 villas, vs 21 hotels/~969 rooms) — SBH's 5-star hotels run ~68% occupancy and very high ADR, so the true GBV split tilts less toward STR than room-count or the generic UHNW-villa archetype default would suggest; this is a deliberate, sourced override of the archetype heuristic. stayover (203,592 airport passengers, 2024) reconfirmed against 312,793 total visitors — the ~109k gap is ferry/day-trip arrivals (mostly from SXM), correctly excluded as non-stayover. ota_pen/str_interm/vrbo_skew held at prior calibration (no better primary source found); str_interm's low-band placement (0.6) is loosely corroborated by a secondary real-estate source citing ~70 local concierge agencies directly managing ~650 of ~950 rental villas vs only ~300 listed via Airbnb/owner-direct.", "sources": [ { "label": "Journal de Saint-Barth / IEDOM — tourism record 2024 (arrivals 312,793; airport passengers 203,592; taxe de séjour €15.8M)", "url": "https://www.journaldesaintbarth.com/actualites/economie-entreprise/lactivite-touristique-bat-de-nouveaux-records-en-2024-202511061549.html", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Collectivité de Saint-Barthélemy — taxe de séjour villas, official 5% flat-rate schedule (all accommodation types)", "url": "https://www.comstbarth.fr/in/rest/annotationSVC/Attachment/attach_cmsUpload_54409bb5-51fa-477f-9c2c-08fe7e6bd110", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Journal de Saint-Barth — CTTSB rapport saison touristique 2023-2024 (hotel 53%/villa 47% taxe de séjour split, €15.9M total)", "url": "https://www.journaldesaintbarth.com/actualites/tourisme/le-cttsb-publie-son-rapport-sur-la-saison-touristique-2023-2024-202502062003.html", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Journal de Saint-Barth — hotel/villa room-stock detail (21 hotels/~969 rooms; 1,113 villas/4,570+ rooms; 68.1% hotel occupancy)", "url": "https://www.journaldesaintbarth.com/actualites/tourisme/les-hotels-se-devoilent-pour-ouvrir-la-saison-202411151615.html", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "IEDOM — Rapport annuel économique de Saint-Barthélemy 2024", "url": "https://www.iedom.fr/Rapport-annuel-economique-de-Saint-Barthelemy-2024", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Jarnias Cyril (real-estate market note) — villa rental market structure: ~650 villas via 70 agencies vs ~300 on Airbnb/owner-direct; GDP tourism share", "url": "https://www.jarniascyril.com/international-real-estate/invest-in-real-estate-saint-barthelemy-premium-market-guide/seasonal-rental-opportunities-saint-barths/", "year": 2024 } ] }, { "code": "AXA", "name": "Anguilla", "flag": "🇦🇮", "year": 2024, "stayover": 111639, "spend": 2185, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.5, "ota_pen": 0.4, "str_interm": 0.7, "vrbo_skew": 1.4, "arche": "UHNW villa + luxury resort (SBH-style)", "group": "focus", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover re-confirmed at 111,639 for 2024 (+16.4% YoY, \"highest annual figure over the past 32 years\") against Anguilla Statistics Dept releases, and independently cross-checked against the 2023 base of 95,944 stopover arrivals (95,944 x 1.164 = ~111.7k, matching within rounding) and against Q1-Q3 2024 stayover of 85,360. Total-visitor headlines (~206k in 2024, 229,734 in 2025) include excursionists/day-trippers arriving mainly by ferry from Sint Maarten and are correctly excluded from the stayover figure. Per-visitor spend ($2,185) could not be re-sourced to a fresh 2024 official survey (Anguilla's Visitor Exit Survey has no recent public release), but sits in the same order of magnitude as proxy indicators: travel-cost aggregators cite ~$2,950 for a week-long trip and ~$422/day x 6-9.5 day average stay (~$2,700-3,000), and a WTTC visitor-exports back-calc (XCD411.5m in 2022 / stayovers) implies ~$1,800-2,000/visitor; kept unchanged given no stronger primary anchor. Archetype params (str_share 0.5, ota_pen 0.4, str_interm 0.7 at the top of the UHNW range, vrbo_skew 1.4 at the bottom) retained: Anguilla splits lodging supply between a handful of branded luxury resorts (Belmond Cap Juluca, Malliouhana, Zemi Beach, CuisinArt, Quintessence) and a large concierge/agency-managed villa stock (WIMCO, Sotheby's, Engel & Völkers) with thin OTA-aggregator visibility (~243 listings via Likibu), consistent with high villa share but capped Airbnb/Vrbo intermediation vs. mainstream STR markets.", "sources": [ { "label": "Anguilla Statistics Department — Tourism 2.4.5 (official arrivals series)", "url": "http://statistics.gov.ai/StatisticsDept/Tourism2_4_5", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Caribbean Journal — Anguilla Strong Finish 2024/2025 (111,639 stayover 2024, +16.4% YoY)", "url": "https://www.caribjournal.com/2025/04/15/anguilla-strong-finish-2024-2025/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Travel Agent Central — Anguilla Announces Record Stopover Arrivals in 2023 (95,944 base)", "url": "https://www.travelagentcentral.com/destinations/anguilla-announces-record-stopover-arrivals-2023", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "Republic Bank Anguilla — Country Statistics (accommodation & food services 23.7% of GVA, tourism-led economy)", "url": "https://www.republicbankanguilla.com/about/anguilla-country-statistics", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "WTTC — Anguilla Travel & Tourism Economic Impact Report 2023 (visitor exports XCD411.5m, 2022; spend proxy)", "url": "https://assets-global.website-files.com/6329bc97af73223b575983ac/647ef92389906ae5814dc8e1_EIR2023-Anguilla.pdf", "year": 2023 } ] }, { "code": "ANU", "name": "Antigua & Barbuda", "flag": "🇦🇬", "year": 2024, "stayover": 330281, "spend": 3178, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.32, "ota_pen": 0.42, "str_interm": 0.88, "vrbo_skew": 1.1, "arche": "All-inclusive + villa hybrid (target)", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "note": "Stayover confirmed unchanged at 330,281 for 2024 via the official Antigua & Barbuda Tourism Authority \"Year in Review\" release (primary, exact match to prior model value). Spend updated from $2,670 to $3,178, using a same-year-matched revenue/arrivals ratio ($1,049.5m tourism receipts / 330,200 visitors, World Bank-basis via worlddata.info) whose visitor count lines up almost exactly with the ABTA stayover figure; a lower ECCB-survey-style total-expenditure anchor for 2023 (EC$1.9bn ≈ $2,500/visitor) shows some methodological spread, so confidence is moderate rather than high on spend specifically. Archetype params left unchanged (str_share 0.32, ota_pen 0.42, str_interm 0.88, vrbo_skew 1.1): Antigua mixes Sandals/Jumby Bay/Hodges Bay-type all-inclusive-leaning resorts (hotel occupancy exceeded 2019 levels in 2024) with an active mass-market (not UHNW-concierge) Airbnb/Vrbo villa segment spanning roughly 900-2,200+ listings across platforms — consistent with a hybrid all-inclusive+villa \"target\" archetype rather than either pure-mega-resort or pure-UHNW-villa poles, so no sourced reason to shift any of the four structural constants.", "confidence": "moderate", "sources": [ { "label": "Antigua & Barbuda Tourism Authority - 2024 Year in Review (330,281 stayover, 823,955 cruise, record year)", "url": "https://www.visitantiguabarbuda.com/public_relations/antigua-and-barbuda-celebrates-record-breaking-visitor-arrivals-in-2024-and-announces-new-initiatives-for-2025/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "worlddata.info - Antigua & Barbuda tourism revenue/visitors table (2024: 330,200 visitors, $1,049.52m revenue, World Bank basis)", "url": "https://www.worlddata.info/america/antigua-barbuda/tourism.php", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Statista - Inbound tourism expenditure in Antigua & Barbuda (EC$1.9bn total visitor expenditure, 2023)", "url": "https://www.statista.com/statistics/814994/antigua-and-barbuda-tourism-revenue/", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "Antigua Observer - Antigua and Barbuda records over one million visitor arrivals in 2024, Tourism Minister says (corroborates stayover/arrivals split)", "url": "https://antiguaobserver.com/antigua-and-barbuda-records-over-one-million-visitor-arrivals-in-2024-tourism-minister-says/", "year": 2025 } ] }, { "code": "SKN", "name": "St Kitts & Nevis", "flag": "🇰🇳", "year": 2024, "spend_src": "proxy", "str_share": 0.25, "ota_pen": 0.42, "str_interm": 0.88, "vrbo_skew": 1.1, "arche": "Resort + boutique", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "stayover": 160000, "spend": 1800, "lodging_override": null, "note": "Stayover updated to ~160k for 2024 (vs prior 104,500 for 2023, which was inconsistent with sourced data): official Jan-Sep 2024 YTD stayovers = 118,574, +21.6% YoY vs 97,460 in Jan-Sep 2023 (SKNIS/Ministry of Tourism release) — note the prior model's 2023 full-year figure of 104,500 was already below the Jan-Sep-2023-alone total, so it was likely a stale/miscategorized input. Q4 2024 (~42k) is triangulated from the St Kitts Tourism Authority's \"2024-25 peak season\" count of 78,077 stayovers minus the confirmed Q1 2025 slice of 46,641, plus an Oct-2024 shoulder-month estimate. Spend kept as $1,800/trip proxy (spend_src=proxy) — no BREA/CTO per-stayover-trip total was found (BREA's cited $145 is a cruise-passenger figure, not stayover); cross-checked against a crowd-sourced $341/day average (BudgetYourTrip) which implies ~$2.0-2.4k for a typical week-long stay, so $1,800 is a conservative, plausible anchor. str_share trimmed 0.30→0.25: combined Airbnb+Vrbo+Booking listings across both islands are only ~150-340 (HiChee/Vrbo), dwarfed by resort room stock (Marriott St Kitts 648 rooms, Four Seasons Nevis ~190, Park Hyatt St Kitts ~126, plus several plantation-inn boutiques), matching the \"Resort + boutique\" archetype. ota_pen/str_interm/vrbo_skew left unchanged (0.42/0.88/1.1) — no destination-specific evidence found to move them from the prior calibration.", "confidence": "moderate", "sources": [ { "label": "SKNIS - St. Kitts Tourism on a Growth Trajectory (Jan-Sep 2024 stayover YTD 118,574 vs 97,460 in 2023)", "url": "https://www.sknis.gov.kn/2024/11/12/st-kitts-tourism-on-a-growth-trajectory-with-new-flights-increased-arrivals-and-cruise-milestones/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "St. Kitts Tourism Authority via Kittitian Heartbeat - Q1 2025 stayover 46,641 (+15% YoY) and 2024-25 peak season 78,077 arrivals", "url": "https://www.kittitianheartbeat.com/press/local/st-kitts-tourism-powers-forward-in-q1-strong-growth-expanded-airlift-and", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Department of Statistics St. Kitts and Nevis - Tourism and Travel (air/sea arrivals by month, official portal)", "url": "https://www.stats.gov.kn/topics/economic-statistics/tourism-and-travel/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "HiChee - St Kitts & Nevis vacation rental listing counts across Airbnb/Vrbo/Booking (STR market sizing)", "url": "https://hichee.com/vacation-rentals/saint-kitts-and-nevis", "year": 2026 }, { "label": "BudgetYourTrip - St Kitts and Nevis average daily visitor spend ($341/day, proxy cross-check for total trip spend)", "url": "https://www.budgetyourtrip.com/saint-kitts-and-nevis", "year": 2026 }, { "label": "WIC News - St Kitts and Nevis records 21.6% visitor increase, over 1M expected for cruise season 2024-25 (BREA $145 cruise-visitor spend cited)", "url": "https://wicnews.com/saint-kitts-nevis/st-kitts-and-nevis-records-216-visitor-increase-over-1m-expected-for-cruise-season-2024-25", "year": 2024 } ] }, { "code": "MNI", "name": "Montserrat", "flag": "🇲🇸", "year": 2024, "stayover": 5191, "spend": 679, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.4, "ota_pen": 0.35, "str_interm": 0.85, "vrbo_skew": 1, "arche": "micro", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover=5,191 (2024) confirmed as an EXACT match to the primary source (Statistics Dept Montserrat); the drop from 7,720 (2023) tracks a cruise-call collapse (3,163→478), not a stayover-specific decline. Per-visitor spend (679) could not be re-sourced to a clean 2024 figure: Montserrat's new exit-survey program (Visitor Expenditure Survey, launched March 2024) is still being extrapolated into official travel-export estimates per the IMF's Oct-2024 TA mission, so no official per-stayover-visitor spend is yet published; retained value sits close to the last published benchmark (EC$22.9m total visitor spend / ~14,080 all-visitor arrivals in 2015 ≈ USD ~$600 blended across stayover+cruise+yacht, plausibly higher for stayover-only after a decade of inflation), hence kept as sourced/moderate rather than downgraded to proxy/low. Lodging structure confirmed micro/villa-dominated — Montserrat has no chain hotels or resorts (destroyed/abandoned post-1995 volcanic crisis); stock is guesthouses, cottages and private villas, with villas explicitly marketed via Vrbo — supporting the existing str_share=0.4 and str_interm=0.85; ota_pen=0.35 kept given the near-absence of a Booking/Expedia-bookable hotel sector to drive higher OTA penetration.", "sources": [ { "label": "Statistics Department Montserrat — Total number of visitor arrivals by type of visitor, annual 2005-2024 (stayover=5,191 in 2024)", "url": "https://statistics.gov.ms/subjects/economic-statistics/tourism-and-travel/total-number-of-visitor-arrivals-by-type-of-visitor-annual-2005-to-2024/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "IMF — UK/Montserrat Technical Assistance Report: External Sector Statistics Mission (Oct 2024), on extrapolating the new Visitor Expenditure Survey into travel-export/BOP estimates", "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/technical-assistance-reports/Issues/2025/06/11/United-Kingdom-Montserrat-British-Overseas-Territory-Technical-Assistance-Report-Report-on-567628", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Government of Montserrat — Montserrat Tourism Master Plan 2015-2025 (EC$22.9m total visitor expenditure benchmark, 2015 base year)", "url": "https://www.gov.ms/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/MONTSERRAT-TOURISM-MASTER-PLAN.pdf", "year": 2016 }, { "label": "Montserrat Tourism Authority — Places to Stay (confirms villa/guesthouse-only lodging stock, no chain hotels, villas marketed via Vrbo)", "url": "https://www.visitmontserrat.com/places-to-stay/", "year": 2026 } ] }, { "code": "BVI", "name": "British Virgin Islands", "flag": "🇻🇬", "year": 2024, "stayover": 305876, "spend": null, "lodging_override": 83, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.45, "ota_pen": 0.38, "str_interm": 0.8, "vrbo_skew": 1.3, "arche": "Yacht-charter (land-lodging haircut)", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover of 305,876 (2024, +16.7% vs 262,080 in 2023) confirmed via BVI Government press release — a record year driven by new Miami direct flights. Per the yacht-charter archetype rule, lodging_override haircuts to LAND-based accommodation only: BVI's 10% Hotel Accommodation Tax (covers hotels/resorts/guesthouses/apartments/villas/cottages/Airbnb) collected $7.18m in 2023 = ~$71.8m taxable lodging base; grown ~15% with the record 2024 season to ~$83m. This REPLACES the prior lodging_override of 120, which appears to have conflated total tourism spend (govt's own 2024 estimate of ~$445m \"revenue circulating through the economy\" across ALL visitor types incl. crewed/bareboat charter spend — note 445m/305,876 ≈ the prior spend=1455 figure) with land-lodging GBV specifically. str_share/ota_pen/str_interm/vrbo_skew held at prior calibrated values (0.45/0.38/0.8/1.3): BVI's land-lodging stock is a boutique-resort + villa/Airbnb mix consistent with target-tier heuristics, and no better-sourced basis was found to move them.", "sources": [ { "label": "BVI Government — VI Tourism Hits Record High With Over One Million Visitors in 2024 (Jan 2025)", "url": "http://www.bvi.gov.vg/media-centre/vi-tourism-hits-record-high-over-one-million-visitors-2024-january-14-2025", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "BVI Government — 2025 Budget Address (tourism revenue ~$445m 2024 est.; GDP)", "url": "https://bvi.gov.vg/media-centre/2025-budget-address-premier-honourable-dr-natalio-d-wheatley", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "BVI Government — Hotel Accommodation Tax Is Now 10 Percent (rate/base since 2017)", "url": "https://bvi.gov.vg/media-centre/hotel-accommodation-tax-now-10-percent", "year": 2017 }, { "label": "Q Wealth Report — BVI Budget: Hotel Accommodation Tax $7.18m (2023 actual)", "url": "https://qwealthreport.com/offshore-jurisdictions-en/money-matters-a-closer-look-at-the-british-virgin-islands-economy/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Virgin Islands Daily News — BVI territory welcomed 1 million-plus visitors last year", "url": "https://www.virginislandsdailynews.com/news/bvi-territory-welcomed-1-million-plus-visitors-last-year/article_e7803014-dd11-11ef-a180-a725a1934b34.html", "year": 2025 } ] }, { "code": "USVI", "name": "US Virgin Islands", "flag": "🇻🇮", "year": 2024, "stayover": 907366, "spend": 720, "spend_src": "sourced", "lodging_override": 408, "str_share": 0.4, "ota_pen": 0.45, "str_interm": 0.88, "vrbo_skew": 1.3, "arche": "US resort + St John villa", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover reconfirmed exact-match at USVIBER's own 2024 \"Air Visitor Arrivals\" figure (907,366) — high confidence, unchanged. Spend ($720) is a residual: USVIBER reports total 2024 tourism expenditure of $1.8B, of which $934.6M is \"excursionist\" spend and $212.6M is same-day air-visitor spend, leaving ~$653M for stayover visitors ÷ 907,366 arrivals; moderate confidence only, since USVIBER's implied cruise-passenger spend (~$550/head within the excursionist line) runs well above the widely-cited $176.73/port-visit CTO cruise benchmark, so the category boundary is fuzzy. lodging_override revised DOWN from $680M to $408M using a cleaner receipts anchor: grossing up the territory's 12.5% hotel-occupant tax collections ($33.4M hotel-room tax + $17.6M non-hotel/STR-room tax, V.I. Code tit.33 §54) implies $267.2M hotel + $140.8M non-hotel gross room revenue = $408M lodging GBV, which also roughly triangulates with stayover×spend×0.45 (~$294M) — far more defensible than the prior unsourced $680M. Archetype params (str_share 0.40/ota_pen 0.45/str_interm 0.88/vrbo_skew 1.3) left unchanged: all sit inside the US-resort heuristic band, and the non-hotel tax share (~34.5% of room-tax receipts) is directionally consistent with str_share 0.40, though only 464 licensed short-term rentals existed territory-wide in 2023 so tax-based STR volume is plausibly an undercount of true (Airbnb/Vrbo) activity.", "sources": [ { "label": "USVI Bureau of Economic Research — USVI Tourism & Accommodation 2024 Report (air arrivals 907,366; total tourism expenditure $1.8B; excursionist $934.6M; day-trip-air $212.6M; hotel room tax $33.4M; non-hotel room tax $17.6M; 464 licensed STRs in 2023; hotel occupancy 61.0%; avg stay 3.7 nights)", "url": "https://usviber.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/USVI-Tourism-Accommodation-2024-Report.pdf", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "USVI Bureau of Economic Research — 2023 U.S. Virgin Islands Economy (Office of the Governor) — territory GDP/population/economic context", "url": "https://usviber.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/ECON-REVIEW-9-16-24.pdf", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "PR Newswire — U.S. Virgin Islands Sets New Tourism Record in 2024 (corroborates air-arrival growth of 16.5% and 2024 cruise passenger volume)", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-virgin-islands-sets-new-tourism-record-in-2024-welcoming-unprecedented-visitor-numbers-302346224.html", "year": 2025 } ] }, { "code": "PR", "name": "Puerto Rico", "flag": "🇵🇷", "year": 2024, "stayover": 6600000, "spend": 1009, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.38, "ota_pen": 0.45, "str_interm": 0.9, "vrbo_skew": 1, "arche": "US-market mega resort (large air-connected leisure/business hub)", "group": "mega", "bookable": true, "confidence": "high", "note": "Stayover confirmed at 6.6M: Luis Muñoz Marín Intl Airport recorded 6.6M passenger arrivals in 2024 (+8% vs 2023, +41% vs 2019) — matches prior model figure exactly, no change. Spend confirmed at $1,009: Discover Puerto Rico's FY2024 $18B-economic-impact research update states nonresident visitors spent an average of $1,009 per trip in 2024 (daily avg $264, incl. $67/day lodging) — also unchanged from prior value. str_share raised 0.35→0.38: STR (Airbnb/Vrbo/other rentals) generated $680M in owner rental income vs total STR+hotel spend, a ~37% revenue share (Viva PR STR Alliance, 2023 data), while STR room-night share reached ~45% by Nov 2024 (Discover PR/STR+AirDNA) — revenue share trails room-night share because STR ADR runs below hotel ADR on the island; 0.38 splits the difference on the more relevant revenue-basis figures. ota_pen/str_interm/vrbo_skew held at archetype defaults (0.45/0.9/1.0): PR is a US-market mega-resort archetype with heavy independent/luxury-hotel reliance on Expedia+Booking (Discover PR OTA co-op spend data) supporting ota_pen ~0.45; San Juan STR listings skew heavily Airbnb (71.4% Airbnb-only vs 3.1% Vrbo-only per AirDNA/PriceLabs) supports str_interm ~0.9, but no clean quantitative basis found to move vrbo_skew off neutral 1.0.", "sources": [ { "label": "Discover Puerto Rico / PRNewswire — Record-Breaking 2024 tourism results (6.6M air arrivals, 7.3M room nights STR+AirDNA)", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/discover-puerto-rico-celebrates-a-record-breaking-2024-and-looks-ahead-to-2025-growth-302362792.html", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Discover Puerto Rico Research Update — Tourism Reaches $18B Economic Impact in 2024 ($1,009 per-trip spend, $11.6B direct spending, hotel vs. other-lodging visitor split)", "url": "https://www.discoverpuertorico.com/industry/research/research-update-puerto-rico-tourism-reaches-18b-economic-impact-2024/2025-08-11", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Viva Puerto Rico STR Alliance — The Impact of Short-Term Rentals on Puerto Rico's Economy (39% room-night share, $680M/37% owner revenue share, 21,000 STR units)", "url": "https://vivapralliance.com/the-impact-of-short-term-rentals-str-on-puerto-ricos-economy/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "PriceLabs / AirDNA — Understanding Puerto Rico Short-Term Rentals Market 2024 (San Juan channel mix: 71.4% Airbnb-only, 3.1% Vrbo-only; ADR/occupancy)", "url": "https://hello.pricelabs.co/blog/puerto-rico-short-term-rentals/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Puerto Rico Tourism Company — Visitor Profile Fiscal Year 2023-2024 (official government visitor stats)", "url": "https://tourism.pr.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Visitor-Profile-Fiscal-Year-2023-2024.pdf", "year": 2025 } ] }, { "code": "JAM", "name": "Jamaica", "flag": "🇯🇲", "year": 2024, "stayover": 2960000, "spend": 1480, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.22, "ota_pen": 0.38, "str_interm": 0.85, "vrbo_skew": 0.9, "arche": "Mega all-inclusive (resort-dominated, US/Canada source market)", "group": "mega", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Verified against 2024 data — figures unchanged from prior model, now anchored more precisely. Stopover arrivals 2.9-2.96M (Ministry of Tourism/JTB, confirmed strongest year on record despite Hurricane Beryl/aviation disruptions). Spend of $1,480 derives from JTB/JIS-reported $4.3B total 2024 tourism earnings divided by stopover arrivals (~$1,450-1,483/visitor implied), treating cruise passengers (1.6M, separately tracked, low per-call spend) as a minor share of the $4.3B. STR params kept at archetype defaults: Jamaica's ~32,000 hotel rooms are dominated by mega all-inclusive brands (Sandals, RIU, Iberostar, Hyatt/Princess) which book direct/tour-operator, capping ota_pen mid-band at 0.38; against that, ~5,000+ Airbnb and ~5,200+ Vrbo listings (AirDNA) represent a professionalized, platform-intermediated STR segment (not concierge-off-platform like SBH/AXA), supporting str_interm 0.85. Heavy US/Canada source-market concentration (71%/14% per OneCaribbean/Statista) reinforces high Airbnb/Vrbo/OTA fluency versus a European-dominated market.", "sources": [ { "label": "Jamaica Tourist Board - Visitor Arrivals to Jamaica (Annual) - stopover/cruise arrivals data downloads incl. 2024", "url": "https://www.jtbonline.org/report-and-statistics/annual-travel/visitor-arrivals-to-jamaica-annual/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Jamaica Information Service - \"Jamaica Earns US$4.3 Billion from Tourism\" (2024 results, Ministry of Tourism)", "url": "https://jis.gov.jm/jamaica-earns-us4-3-billion-from-tourism/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Jamaica Observer - \"US$4.3 billion earned from tourism industry in 2024\"", "url": "https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2025/01/07/us4-3-billion-earned-tourism-industry-2024/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "AirDNA MarketMinder - Jamaica short-term rental (Airbnb+Vrbo) listing counts, occupancy, ADR", "url": "https://www.airdna.co/vacation-rental-data/app/jm/default", "year": 2026 }, { "label": "OneCaribbean.org / Statista - Jamaica stopover arrivals by source market (US 71%, Canada 13.8%, 2024)", "url": "https://www.onecaribbean.org/caribbean-tourism-maintains-strong-growth-in-2024-surpassing-pre-pandemic-levels/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Hope Research Group - Jamaica Travel Industry Report (room stock ~32,000, all-inclusive dominance)", "url": "https://www.hoperesearchgroup.com/blog/jamaica-travel-industry-report", "year": 2026 } ] }, { "code": "DOM", "name": "Dominican Republic", "flag": "🇩🇴", "year": 2024, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.2, "ota_pen": 0.35, "str_interm": 0.85, "vrbo_skew": 0.9, "arche": "All-inclusive mega-resort", "group": "mega", "bookable": true, "note": "Stayover verified unchanged: 8,535,742 non-cruise air arrivals in 2024 (+6% YoY), per BCRD's official \"Informe del Flujo Turístico 2024\" — exact match to prior model value. Spend updated 1400→1345: BCRD's official 2024 average daily tourist expenditure of $167.75 x average length of stay of 8.01 nights = ~$1,345 total-trip spend, a directly sourced anchor replacing the prior round-number estimate. DR is textbook all-inclusive-mega: enormous resort room inventory in Punta Cana/Puerto Plata/Samana books direct/tour-operator rather than OTA, and STR supply (~37k Airbnb/Vrbo listings per AirROI, concentrated in a few regions) is small relative to that resort base, so str_share=0.20/ota_pen=0.35 (low end of archetype band) are kept; str_interm=0.85 and vrbo_skew=0.9 (Airbnb-dominant, resort market not villa-concierge) also retained — no sourced reason to move any of the four structure params from the prior calibration.", "confidence": "high", "stayover": 8535742, "spend": 1345, "lodging_override": null, "sources": [ { "label": "Banco Central de la República Dominicana — Informe del Flujo Turístico 2024 (arrivals 8,535,742; daily spend $167.75)", "url": "https://cdn.bancentral.gov.do/documents/publicaciones-economicas/informe-del-flujo-turistico/documents/informe_turistico2024-12.pdf", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Arecoa — \"Se dispara el gasto promedio diario de los turistas en RD\" (BCRD: $167.75/day, 8.01 nights avg stay, 2024)", "url": "https://www.arecoa.com/destinos/2026/03/13/se-dispara-el-gasto-promedio-diario-de-los-turistas-en-rd/", "year": 2026 }, { "label": "DMK Abogados — Dominican tourism grew ~9-10% in 2024, most visitors from US", "url": "https://dmklawyers.com/en/dominican-tourism-grew-by-9-in-2024-most-come-from-the-u-s/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "AirROI — Dominican Republic STR/Airbnb Market Report (listings by region, ADR)", "url": "https://www.airroi.com/report/world/dominican-republic", "year": 2025 } ] }, { "code": "TCI", "name": "Turks and Caicos", "flag": "🇹🇨", "year": 2024, "stayover": 734308, "spend": null, "lodging_override": 680, "spend_src": "proxy", "str_share": 0.45, "ota_pen": 0.45, "str_interm": 0.85, "vrbo_skew": 1.4, "arche": "US-market resort x luxury-villa hybrid", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover confirmed unchanged at 734,308 (2024 air/stopover arrivals, +10.66% YoY) — corroborated by TCI Tourism Board data reported via TravelPulse and multiple travel-press outlets; a lower \"641,767 overnight\" figure appears on one visittci.com stats page but is less consistently corroborated so was discounted. Spend kept null / lodging_override kept at $680M (proxy) rather than moving to stayover x spend, because no authoritative total-trip-spend figure exists (only crowd-sourced per-diem estimates ~$379/day of unclear reliability, and no confirmed avg length-of-stay). Two independent cross-checks support keeping 680M rather than revising it: (1) the 12% Hotel & Tourism Tax (HTT) — which taxes accommodation PLUS restaurants/bars/tours/spa, not lodging alone — collected ~$106.5-120M in FY2023-24, implying total taxed tourism turnover of ~$900M-$1B, of which lodging alone (majority but not all of that blended base) plausibly lands near $680M; (2) bottoms-up STR data (AirROI) shows ~1,415 active Airbnb listings averaging ~$97K/yr revenue (~$137M Airbnb-only GBV as of late 2025), consistent with str_share=0.45 implying ~$306M total STR GBV once Vrbo (TCI's legacy-strong platform, hence vrbo_skew=1.4) and Booking.com holiday-home volume are added. Archetype params (ota_pen 0.45, str_interm 0.85) kept at US-market-resort levels rather than SBH/AXA's low-str_interm concierge model, since TCI's villa market has genuine, sizeable Airbnb/Vrbo listing penetration rather than being exclusively concierge-agency-booked.", "sources": [ { "label": "TCI Tourism Board 2024 arrivals (734,308 stopover, +10.66% YoY) via TravelPulse", "url": "https://www.travelpulse.com/news/destinations/turks-caicos-welcomes-nearly-2-million-travelers-in-2024-setting-new-record", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Turks and Caicos Islands Government - Hotel & Tourism Accommodation Tax (HTT) rate and base", "url": "https://www.gov.tc/revenue/htt", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Visit TCI - Taxes overview citing FY2023-24 Accommodation Tax revenue ($120,040,116, 26.3% of government revenue)", "url": "https://www.visittci.com/life-and-business/investing/taxes", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "AirROI Turks & Caicos Islands STR market report - listing count, ADR, annual revenue", "url": "https://www.airroi.com/report/world/turks-&-caicos-islands", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "TCI Tourism Board official visitor statistics page", "url": "https://turksandcaicostourism.com/visitor-statistics/", "year": 2024 } ] }, { "code": "MTQ", "name": "Martinique", "flag": "🇲🇶", "year": 2024, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.55, "ota_pen": 0.35, "str_interm": 0.85, "vrbo_skew": 0.9, "arche": "French DOM", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "stayover": 571511, "spend": 1082, "lodging_override": null, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover arrivals confirmed unchanged at 571,511 (+2.8% YoY, highest in 40yrs, INSEE Bilan économique 2024). Avg trip spend re-anchored to €1,000/11-day stay (INSEE/CMT/MEDEF) x 2024 avg EUR/USD 1.0822 = $1,082 (was $1,037, prior FX vintage). Cross-check: 0.45 lodging-GBV constant x $1,082 x 571,511 stayover ≈ $278m lodging GBV, vs actual reported lodging spend of 42.2% x €595m total receipts ≈ €251m (~$272m) — close match, validates the fixed 0.45 constant for this island. str_share raised 0.40→0.55: INSEE's 2024 accommodation-type split of stayover visitors shows 44% in rented villas/apartments vs only 19% hotels (29% unmonetized stays with friends/family, 8% villages-vacances/other) — among paid lodging, rentals dominate ~62% by headcount, so 0.55 is a conservative (not GBV-weighted, hence \"moderate\" not \"high\" confidence) midpoint; ~8,000 registered \"meublés de tourisme\" listings (CMT) corroborate a large STR inventory. ota_pen (0.35) and str_interm (0.85) held at prior French-DOM archetype values — no island-specific evidence found to move them.", "sources": [ { "label": "INSEE Bilan économique 2024 Martinique — Fréquentation touristique (571,511 stayover, accommodation-type split, €595m receipts)", "url": "https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/8566673?sommaire=8354931", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "IEDOM Rapport annuel économique 2024 — Martinique (central bank annual report)", "url": "https://www.iedom.fr/IMG/pdf/iedom_ra_eco_24_martinique.pdf", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "MEDEF Martinique — Tourisme en Martinique: défis, ambitions et perspectives (avg spend €1,000/11 days, 8,000 meublés de tourisme, CMT/IEDOM data)", "url": "https://www.medef-martinique.fr/Tourisme-en-Martinique-defis", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "AirDNA Martinique vacation rental market data (STR inventory/ADR structure)", "url": "https://www.airdna.co/vacation-rental-data/app/mq/martinique", "year": 2026 } ] }, { "code": "GLP", "name": "Guadeloupe", "flag": "🇬🇵", "year": 2024, "stayover": 1200000, "spend": 1080, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.45, "ota_pen": 0.35, "str_interm": 0.85, "vrbo_skew": 1.1, "arche": "French DOM", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "note": "MAJOR UPDATE: stayover revised from 750k to ~1.2M — INSEE (Insee Analyses Guadeloupe n°87, 2024) confirms non-cruise \"touristes\" (overnight-stay definition) grew +2% in 2024 off a >1.2M 2023 base, corroborated by IEDOM/gwada-tourisme reporting frequency \"maintained above 1.2M\" through 2025; hotel-only guests are just 358,400 (1.28M nights), so the remainder is a large VFR/family-stay segment (INSEE: only \"6 in 10 pay for accommodation\" vs 1-in-2 prior year) — flagging that the fixed 0.45 lodging-spend-share constant may somewhat overstate lodging GBV here since GLP's own measured accommodation share of trip spend is 34%, not 45%. Spend kept at $1080 (~€1017), still the best-available total-trip-spend anchor (Qualistat/CTIG survey) but it is a 2014 vintage figure — no fresher primary per-visitor spend survey was found. str_share nudged 0.42→0.45: IEDOM 2024 shows rental/locatif nights +9.5% vs hotel nights -2.1%, and paid-rental guest volume is now roughly on par with paid-hotel guest volume. vrbo_skew raised 0.9→1.1: unlike English-Caribbean islands, IEDOM/press explicitly name Abritel (Vrbo's French brand) alongside Airbnb/Booking as a top rental-booking platform in the DOM market, so Vrbo skew should run above (not below) the SXM baseline. ota_pen kept at 0.35, matching the French-DOM archetype heuristic exactly.", "confidence": "moderate", "sources": [ { "label": "INSEE Analyses Guadeloupe n°87 — En 2024, le tourisme dynamise l'activité en Guadeloupe", "url": "https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/8648514", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "INSEE Bilan économique 2024 Guadeloupe — Tourisme (fréquentation hôtelière)", "url": "https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/8354611?sommaire=8354895", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "IEDOM — Rapport annuel économique de la Guadeloupe 2024 (landing page)", "url": "https://www.iedom.fr/Rapport-annuel-economique-de-la-Guadeloupe-2024?lang=fr", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "KARIBINFO — synthèse du bilan IEDOM Guadeloupe 2024 (hébergement locatif +9,4%/+9,5%)", "url": "https://www.karibinfo.com/news/guadeloupe-le-bilan-en-demi-teinte-de-liedom-pour-larchipel-en-2024/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "gwada-tourisme.fr — Tourisme en Guadeloupe : chiffres essentiels (fréquentation >1,2M 2023-2025)", "url": "https://www.gwada-tourisme.fr/tourisme-economie-guadeloupe/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "RCI / Qualistat survey — Combien dépensent les touristes chez nous (avg spend €1,017/trip)", "url": "https://rci.fm/deuxiles/node/53144", "year": 2014 } ] }, { "code": "CUW", "name": "Curaçao", "flag": "🇨🇼", "year": 2024, "stayover": 700249, "spend": 1100, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.35, "ota_pen": 0.45, "str_interm": 0.88, "vrbo_skew": 0.9, "arche": "Dutch mixed-market: Airbnb-dominant STR sector (60% Airbnb-only listings vs 7% Vrbo-only per AirDNA) but hotels regained majority share of stopover lodging since 2023 on new branded-resort supply (Sandals Royal Curaçao 2024; TUI Blue + Pyrmont Autograph Collection 2026 pipeline); NL is #1 source market (45-47%) with growing US access (Delta resumed direct service), giving mid-range OTA penetration between low-OTA French DOM and high-OTA US-resort archetypes.", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "note": "Stayover arrivals confirmed exact match to prior model value via Curaçao Tourist Board primary release (700,249 in 2024, +20% YoY). Spend revised down from the prior unsourced $1,400 proxy to $1,100, anchored on WTTC/Oxford Economics \"visitor exports\" (in-country international tourist spending, TSA-methodology, benchmarked to CBS/Central Bank Curaçao national accounts) of USD 639.7mn (2023 nominal estimate) divided by CTB 2023 stayover arrivals (582,405 = 700,249 minus the 117,844 YoY gain) = ~$1,098/visitor; rounded to $1,100 since no official 2024 receipts figure is yet published (2024 actual likely somewhat higher given 13%+ hotel ADR growth, but that would require an unsourced extrapolation on top of an extrapolation). Note this \"visitor exports\" figure is in-destination spend only (accommodation, F&B, local transport, retail, entertainment) and explicitly excludes international airfare, consistent with how DMO per-visitor spend figures are typically constructed elsewhere in this model. STR structure: AirDNA shows 5,548 active listings (92% entire-home), 62% occupancy, $182 ADR, split 60% Airbnb-only/7% Vrbo-only/33% both — comparable order of magnitude to the ~4,800-5,000 hotel rooms (CHATA/STR), but HVS reporting that \"hotels have now surpassed alternative accommodations as the primary lodging choice\" since 2023 argues against raising str_share above the current 0.35 despite comparable listing counts. Archetype params (ota_pen, str_interm, vrbo_skew) left unchanged from calibration as no sourced figure contradicts them.", "confidence": "moderate", "sources": [ { "label": "Curaçao Tourist Board — \"Curaçao Tourism Reaching New Heights: 700,000 Stayover Arrivals in 2024!\"", "url": "https://www.curacaotouristboard.com/2025/01/13/curacao-tourism-reaching-new-heights-700000-stayover-arrivals-in-2024/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "WTTC / Oxford Economics — Curaçao: Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2023 (visitor exports / spend, benchmarked to CBS-Curaçao national accounts)", "url": "https://assets-global.website-files.com/6329bc97af73223b575983ac/647f02f2c38a3d93ab3203e0_EIR2023-Curacao.pdf", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "AirDNA — Curaçao Airbnb & Short-Term Rental Data (listings, ADR, occupancy, platform split)", "url": "https://www.airdna.co/vacation-rental-data/app/cw/curacao/curacao/overview", "year": 2026 }, { "label": "HVS — \"Island of Opportunity: Curaçao's Tourism Transformation\" (hotels overtake alternative accommodations since 2023; hotel pipeline)", "url": "https://www.hvs.com/article/10280-island-of-opportunity-curacaos-tourism-transformation", "year": 2026 }, { "label": "Caribbean Journal — \"Curacao Hotel Rooms Keep Filling Up\" (CHATA hotel ADR/RevPAR/occupancy)", "url": "https://www.caribjournal.com/2024/03/07/curacao-hotel-rooms-keep-filling-up/", "year": 2024 } ] }, { "code": "BON", "name": "Bonaire", "flag": "🇧🇶", "year": 2024, "stayover": 182181, "spend": 2000, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "proxy", "str_share": 0.2, "ota_pen": 0.42, "str_interm": 0.88, "vrbo_skew": 1, "arche": "Dive — apartments (independent boutique hotel/dive-resort market, small owner-run apartment/villa STR tail)", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover=182,181 confirmed exactly against TCB/BONHATA 2024 recap (7.35% YoY growth, 9.8-night avg length of stay) — high confidence, unchanged from prior model. Spend revised 1200→2000: TCB's 2024 Tourism Summit reported avg daily spend of $300/day for US visitors (25% of arrivals) and $160/day for Dutch visitors (45% of arrivals, Bonaire's largest source market); blending these with an estimated ~$200-210/day for the remaining 30% (Curaçao/Aruba/Germany/Canada/Belgium/other) gives ~$205/day, x 9.8 nights ≈ $2,000/trip — flagged proxy since no single official total-trip-spend figure exists and the minority-nationality weight is estimated, not sourced. str_share revised down 0.40→0.20 using TCB's 2024 visitor accommodation-type survey: apartments 12.5% + villas 7.5% = 20% of visitor stays vs hotels/resorts 43% (self-catering apartment stock is smaller than a \"dive-apartment island\" reputation suggests; many \"hotels\" are actually condo-style dive resorts like Buddy Dive/Captain Don's Habitat booked direct, not through Airbnb/Vrbo). ota_pen/str_interm/vrbo_skew held at prior calibration — no sourced reason to move; BONHATA reports hotel ADR $140/night, 62% occupancy in 2024, and TCB notes 56% repeat-visitor share, consistent with a moderate-OTA, direct/repeat-heavy independent-hotel market rather than chain/mega-resort OTA dependence.", "sources": [ { "label": "Tourism Corporation Bonaire 2024 recap (stayover 182,181; 9.8-night ALOS; accommodation-type split) — Island of Bonaire", "url": "https://bonaireisland.com/bonaire-achieved-record-breaking-tourism-numbers-in-2024/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "InfoBonaire — Bonaire's Tourism Update for 2024 (accommodation type breakdown: hotels 43%, apartments 12.5%, villas 7.5%, friends/family 9%)", "url": "https://infobonaire.com/bonaires-tourism-update-for-2024/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "BONHATA — Accommodation Performance Update Q4 2024 (hotel occupancy 62%, ADR $140)", "url": "https://www.bonhata.com/accommodation-performance-update-q4-2024/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Island of Bonaire — TCB Tourism Summit recap (US visitors ~$300/day, Dutch visitors ~$160/day, tourism ROI)", "url": "https://bonaireisland.com/tourism-corporation-bonaire-looks-back-at-a-successful-annual-bonaire-tourism-summit-2/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "BES-Reporter — Bonaire Among Most Tourism-Dependent Economies in the Caribbean (58% of GDP from direct tourist spending 2024, Economisch Bureau Amsterdam study)", "url": "https://www.bes-reporter.com/news/economy/68538/bonaire-among-most-tourism-dependent-economies-in-the-caribbean", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Tourism Analytics — Bonaire Tourism Performance Statistics (monthly time series, 182,181 stayover 2024 vs 169,706 in 2023)", "url": "https://tourismanalytics.com/bonaire-statistics.html", "year": 2025 } ] }, { "code": "ABW", "name": "Aruba", "flag": "🇦🇼", "year": 2024, "stayover": 1421616, "spend": 1916, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.25, "ota_pen": 0.48, "str_interm": 0.9, "vrbo_skew": 1, "arche": "US-market resort (mega) — high-rise/low-rise hotel strip + large timeshare base + growing STVR sector", "group": "mega", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover 1,421,616 reconfirmed unchanged: official Government of Aruba/ATA full-year-2024 total (+12.8% YoY vs 2023). Spend revised DOWN from prior 2,122 to 1,916 USD/visitor total-trip: Aruba Tourism Authority reinstated its Airport Exit Survey in 2024, and the Tourism Analytics Caribbean compendium cites 2024 avg spend/visitor of $1,916 (framed via 2025's \"+1.7% to ~$1,949\" YoY figure), which also reconciles with CBA/CBS AWG-denominated tourism-credit data (~AWG 2,875/visitor ≈ $1,606 at 1.79 peg, a lower-bound proxy since it excludes some non-credit-card cash/prepaid spend) and the ADEX-based $297/day x ~6.9-night avg stay run-rate. STR/OTA params kept unchanged (no Aruba-specific STR-vs-hotel GBV split found): str_interm=0.90 and ota_pen=0.48 sit at the top of the \"US-market resort\" archetype band, consistent with Aruba's Airbnb/Vrbo-penetrated vacation-rental scene (govt tracks a distinct Short-Term Vacation Rental category running ~59.7% occupancy Dec-2024) and Booking/Expedia-heavy hotel/timeshare distribution; str_share=0.25 retained absent better evidence to move it off the mega-resort archetype default.", "sources": [ { "label": "Government of Aruba — \"Strong Tourism in 2024\" (official 2024 full-year stayover total 1,421,616, +12.8% YoY; Dec-2024 Short-Term Vacation Rental occupancy 59.7%)", "url": "https://www.gobierno.aw/en/strong-tourism-in-2024", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Tourism Analytics — \"Aruba 2025: 6.6% More Stopover Visitors, Only 1.7% More Spend Per Visitor\" (cites 2024 avg spend/visitor of US$1,916 from ATA's reinstated Airport Exit Survey, vs 2025 1,515,102 visitors)", "url": "https://tourismanalytics.com/expertinsights/aruba-2025-66-more-stopover-visitors-only-17-more-spend-per-visitor", "year": 2026 }, { "label": "Aruba.nu / Antilliaans Dagblad — tourist spending structure (ADEX $297/day, accommodation = 38% of visitor spend, North America = 78% of total spend) — 2025 data used only as structural cross-check", "url": "https://www.aruba.nu/nieuws/economie/91236/toeristen-gaven-vorig-jaar-ruim-3-miljard-dollar-uit-op-aruba", "year": 2026 }, { "label": "Tourism Analytics — Aruba Tourism Statistics compendium (stayover arrivals, market-mix, ADR/occupancy time series cross-check)", "url": "https://tourismanalytics.com/aruba-statistics.html", "year": 2026 }, { "label": "Centrale Bank van Aruba — 2024-IV State of the Economy report (tourism credits/BOP foreign-exchange inflow context, AWG-denominated)", "url": "https://www.cbaruba.org/readBlob.do?id=18075", "year": 2024 } ] }, { "code": "LCA", "name": "Saint Lucia", "flag": "🇱🇨", "year": 2024, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.32, "ota_pen": 0.42, "str_interm": 0.88, "vrbo_skew": 1.1, "arche": "Resort + villa", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "stayover": 435959, "spend": 3000, "lodging_override": null, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover updated to 435,959 (SLTA 2024 annual figure, +14% YoY off 380,791 in 2023; consistent across SLTA-sourced trade press and a second outlet's 435,573). Spend nudged up from 2,907 to 3,000: primary anchor is CSO's official 2023 expenditure series (EC$3,067.6m / 380,791 stayover ≈ US$2,984/visitor at the EC$2.70 peg), cross-checked against a 2024 commentary estimate of EC$3.6bn total tourism expenditure (≈US$3,061/stayover visitor; EC$ inferred since USD would imply implausible >80% GDP share for accommodation+transport alone) — no official 2024 CSO expenditure table is published yet, hence \"moderate\" not \"high\" confidence. Archetype params held: str_share 0.32 balances Saint Lucia's heavy resort base (3 Sandals properties plus Jade Mountain/Sugar Beach/Cap Maison/BodyHoliday) against a real villa segment (Vrbo lists 357 villas, 1,371+ total properties island-wide); str_interm 0.88 and vrbo_skew 1.1 unchanged since villas here skew small-owner Airbnb/Vrbo-bookable rather than UHNW-concierge like SBH/AXA; ota_pen 0.42 held since US visitor share just crossed 50% (OTA-friendly) but UK (~20%, longer-stay/tour-operator-heavy) and regional Caribbean arrivals still pull blended OTA-hotel penetration below the pure US-market-resort band.", "sources": [ { "label": "Central Statistical Office of Saint Lucia — Selected Visitor Statistics, 2012 to 2023 (stayover arrivals + total tourist expenditure EC$m)", "url": "https://stats.gov.lc/subjects/economy/tourism/selected-visitor-statistics-2012-to-2023/", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "St. Lucia Times — Saint Lucia Records 14% Increase in Tourism Arrivals (435,959 stayover, 2024 SLTA figures)", "url": "https://stluciatimes.com/168461/2025/01/saint-lucia-records-14-increase-in-tourism-arrivals/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Caribbean News Global — Should we be concerned about the performance of St Lucia's tourism sector? (2024 total tourism expenditure estimate, GDP contribution, 435,573 stayover)", "url": "https://caribbeannewsglobal.com/should-we-be-concerned-about-the-performance-of-st-lucias-tourism-sector/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Vrbo — St. Lucia villas listing count (STR/villa market structure)", "url": "https://www.vrbo.com/en-ca/vacation-rentals/villas/saint-lucia", "year": 2026 } ] }, { "code": "GRD", "name": "Grenada", "flag": "🇬🇩", "year": 2024, "stayover": 208000, "spend": 2790, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.35, "ota_pen": 0.4, "str_interm": 0.88, "vrbo_skew": 1.1, "arche": "Resort + boutique", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Arrivals re-anchored: Grenada Tourism Authority's own statistics page gives 178,020 stayover visitors for full-year 2023 (+34% vs 2022, +9% vs 2019) — the prior dataset's \"208,000/2023\" doesn't match this primary figure. H1 2024 ran +18% YoY (+20% vs 2019) per GTA/WIC News reporting, which projects a full-year 2024 total of roughly 205-210K; Hurricane Beryl struck Carriacou/Petite Martinique on 1 Jul 2024 (mainland largely spared) which may have dented H2 upside on the sister isles. So stayover=208,000 is kept but relabeled to year 2024 as an extrapolated estimate, not an official final GTA tally (moderate confidence). Spend ($2,790/trip) is carried forward unchanged — could not independently re-verify a clean 2023/2024 primary per-visitor figure this pass; World Bank's last clean tourism-receipts print for Grenada stops at 2018 ($548M), and a secondary (unconfirmed-provenance) 2023 receipts figure (~XCD1.9bn total across stayover+cruise+yacht) implies a stayover-only spend north of $2,790 once cruise/yacht are backed out, so treat $2,790 as plausibly conservative rather than overstated. Archetype params (str_share 0.35 / ota_pen 0.40 / str_interm 0.88 / vrbo_skew 1.1) kept as-is: resort-plus-boutique-villa mix with an active Vrbo presence is consistent with the prior calibration and no sourced evidence surfaced to shift them.", "sources": [ { "label": "Grenada Tourism Authority — official Statistics page (2023 stayover 178,020 / cruise 305,627 / yacht 20,758)", "url": "https://tac.puregrenada.com/statistics/", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "WIC News — 'Grenada booms with 20% increase in visitor arrivals in 1st half of 2024' (H1 2024 +18% YoY, +20% vs 2019)", "url": "https://wicnews.com/grenada/grenada-booms-with-20-increase-in-visitor-arrivals-in-1st-half-of-2024", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "World Bank Open Data — International tourism receipts, Grenada (series runs to 2018: $548M; used as historical proxy/context for spend order-of-magnitude)", "url": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.CD?locations=GD", "year": 2018 } ] }, { "code": "CYM", "name": "Cayman Islands", "flag": "🇰🇾", "year": 2024, "stayover": 437842, "spend": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "lodging_override": 400, "str_share": 0.45, "ota_pen": 0.45, "str_interm": 0.88, "vrbo_skew": 1.4, "arche": "US-market luxury condo", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "note": "Stayover arrivals (437,842, +2% YoY despite an active hurricane season disrupting airport operations) are directly confirmed via the Deputy Premier/Minister of Tourism's year-end Parliament statement (Feb 2025), matching the prior model value exactly. Switched to lodging_override in place of the prior unsourced $2,400 spend proxy: CI$43.3M in Tourism Accommodation Tax revenue (a 13% flat levy applied uniformly to hotels AND vacation rentals/condos, per Cayman News Service) implies gross accommodation receipts of ~CI$333M, i.e. ~US$400M at the 1.20 USD/KYD peg -- about 15% below the old stayover x spend x 0.45 estimate (~$473M), so treated as the stronger receipts-based anchor per model rules (note: likely a slight undercount if informal/non-compliant STR listings under-remit tax). STR/OTA params (str_share 0.45, ota_pen 0.45, str_interm 0.88, vrbo_skew 1.4) kept unchanged -- no sourced hotel-vs-condo GBV split was found, but Cayman's Seven Mile Beach supply is genuinely condo-heavy (Ritz-Carlton/Kimpton/Marriott branded hotels alongside many privately-owned rental-pool condo towers), consistent with the \"US-market luxury condo\" archetype and the existing SXM-calibrated band (ota_pen 0.45-0.48, str_interm 0.85-0.90).", "confidence": "moderate", "sources": [ { "label": "Cayman Islands Parliament -- Deputy Premier & Minister for Tourism and Ports, Statement on Tourism Industry Year-End Performance 2024 (437,842 stayover visitors; CI$43.3M accommodation tax revenue, 3rd Meeting of Parliament 2024-2025)", "url": "https://parliament.ky/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Minister-Bryan-Tourism-Industry-Performance-7.02.2025-1.pdf", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Cayman News Service -- 'Inflation boosts government's tourism revenue' (confirms CI$ denomination and Tourism Accommodation Tax structure/rate context)", "url": "https://caymannewsservice.com/2023/07/inflation-boosts-governments-tourism-revenue/", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "Economics & Statistics Office, Cayman Islands Government -- official tourism and economic statistics portal", "url": "https://www.eso.ky/", "year": 2026 } ] }, { "code": "BRB", "name": "Barbados", "flag": "🇧🇧", "year": 2024, "stayover": 704340, "spend": 1800, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.35, "ota_pen": 0.42, "str_interm": 0.88, "vrbo_skew": 1.1, "arche": "Resort + west-coast villa (UK/US/Canada mixed hotel market, Platinum Coast villa segment)", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover arrivals (704,340, +10.6% YoY, +1.7% vs 2019) verified via Barbados Today reporting of Barbados Statistical Service/Central Bank data, and cross-checked against a reported 2025 figure (~727k, +3.3% YoY, CTO-sourced) that backs out to the same 2024 base — no change from prior model pass. Per-visitor spend ($1,800) could not be re-sourced to a primary BTMI Expenditure Survey this session (its annual-reports page only listed 2014-2018 reports); it is directionally consistent with cross-checks (~$185/day x ~10-11 night avg stay; WTTC direct tourism contribution ~17.5% of GDP) but kept unchanged rather than replaced with a weaker figure, hence moderate not high confidence. STR/OTA params (str_share 0.35, ota_pen 0.42, str_interm 0.88, vrbo_skew 1.1) left unchanged — no AirDNA-grade listing/ADR data was retrievable this session (WebSearch budget exhausted early in the run; DuckDuckGo HTML search hit CAPTCHA walls); directionally plausible for a hotel-dominant market with a concierge-agency/Airbnb-mixed west-coast villa segment, but not independently re-verified.", "sources": [ { "label": "Barbados Today – \"Tourism soars: Record-breaking visitor numbers in 2024\" (704,340 stay-over arrivals, +10.6% YoY; reporting Barbados Statistical Service/Ministry of Tourism data)", "url": "https://barbadostoday.bb/2025/02/26/tourism-soars-record-breaking-visitor-numbers-in-2024/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Central Bank of Barbados – Tourism Statistics page (Long Stay & Cruise Arrivals reports, official source: Barbados Statistical Service)", "url": "https://www.centralbank.org.bb/news/tourism", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Hotel Agio – Barbados Tourism Statistics (stayover arrivals series 2019-2024 cross-check; secondary aggregator, notes primary expenditure data is not publicly detailed)", "url": "https://hotelagio.com/barbados-tourism-statistics/", "year": 2025 } ] }, { "code": "STA", "name": "Sint Eustatius", "flag": "🇧🇶", "year": 2023, "stayover": 5800, "spend": 600, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "proxy", "str_share": 0.4, "ota_pen": 0.35, "str_interm": 0.85, "vrbo_skew": 1, "arche": "Micro", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "low", "note": "Stayover confirmed via CBS StatLine table 83104ENG (inbound tourism by air, BES islands): St Eustatius = 5.8k in 2023, up from 5.6k in 2022; this is still the latest published figure (CBS's own Sept-2025 economic release on Bonaire/St Eustatius/Saba still reports on 2023, reflecting the ~2yr lag typical for micro-BES national accounts), so 2024 has no better anchor yet and prior-year figure stands unchanged. Spend remains an unsourced proxy: no primary tourist-expenditure survey exists for Statia; BudgetYourTrip 2026 daily-cost estimates ($98/day budget, $225/day mid-range) triangulate to roughly $600 for a short dive-focused stay, consistent with the existing proxy, so left unchanged. Accommodation base is a handful of small independent hotels/dive-resorts (Old Gin House ~$145/night, Kings' Well, Golden Rock Dive & Nature) rather than a developed Airbnb/Vrbo villa market — no AirDNA/Booking listing-count data could be retrieved (blocked fetches) to justify moving str_share/ota_pen/str_interm/vrbo_skew off the existing Micro-archetype defaults, so all four are kept as-is.", "sources": [ { "label": "CBS StatLine 83104ENG — Caribbean Netherlands: inbound tourism by air (Bonaire/St Eustatius/Saba, monthly+annual)", "url": "https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/detail/83104ENG", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "CBS News — Economy of Bonaire grows in 2023, contraction on St Eustatius and Saba", "url": "https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2025/39/economy-of-bonaire-grows-in-2023-contraction-on-st-eustatius-and-saba", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "BudgetYourTrip — Sint Eustatius daily travel cost estimates (proxy for per-visitor spend)", "url": "https://www.budgetyourtrip.com/sint-eustatius", "year": 2026 }, { "label": "Wikivoyage — Sint Eustatius (Sleep section: Old Gin House, Kings' Well; dive-tourism economy context)", "url": "https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Sint_Eustatius", "year": 2026 } ] }, { "code": "SAB", "name": "Saba", "flag": "🇧🇶", "year": 2023, "spend_src": "proxy", "stayover": 9000, "spend": 1500, "lodging_override": null, "str_share": 0.4, "ota_pen": 0.35, "str_interm": 0.65, "vrbo_skew": 1.2, "arche": "micro-dive", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "low", "note": "CBS StatLine's only hard series (table 83104ENG) shows just 5.7k inbound AIR arrivals to Saba in 2023 (provisional; day+overnight combined) and explicitly EXCLUDES boat/ferry — but the daily St. Maarten ferry (The Edge/Dawn II) is Saba's dominant access mode (the WinAir STOL flight uses ~19-seat Twin Otters) and isn't captured here, so stayover is proxied to ~9,000, netting an estimated day-trip/dive-package share out of the commonly-cited ~15,000 total-visitor figure. Per-visitor spend ($1,500) is an unsourced proxy reflecting Saba's high cost-of-access (fly/ferry via SXM) and diving-heavy itinerary — no CBS expenditure survey exists for Saba specifically. Lodging mixes a handful of small hotels/guesthouses (Queen's Gardens Resort, Ecolodge Rendez-Vous, Scout's Place, Juliana's) with a genuine villa/cottage-rental and Airbnb sector, supporting moderate str_share (0.40); low volume and a travel-agent/dive-operator booking culture keep ota_pen modest (0.35) and str_interm mid-range (0.65, Airbnb-type OTA mixed with direct villa-management bookings — UHNW-villa-style low-intermediation logic scaled down for a non-UHNW niche market). Treat all figures as directional; confidence is low given the ferry-arrivals gap and absence of a sourced spend survey.", "sources": [ { "label": "CBS StatLine - Caribbean Netherlands: inbound tourism by air (table 83104ENG)", "url": "https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/detail/83104ENG", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "CBS OpenData API - table 83104ENG raw dataset (Saba=GM9003, 2023JJ00=5.7k)", "url": "https://opendata.cbs.nl/ODataApi/odata/83104ENG/TypedDataSet", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "Saba News - Tourist arrivals by air on Saba not yet back at pre-pandemic level (reporting CBS data)", "url": "https://saba-news.com/tourist-arrivals-by-air-on-saba-not-yet-back-at-its-pre-pandemic-level/", "year": 2022 }, { "label": "Wikipedia - Saba (island): ~15,000 visitors/year, accommodation & dive-tourism overview", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saba_(island)", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "CBS - The Caribbean Netherlands in Numbers 2024 (publication)", "url": "https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/publication/2024/50/the-caribbean-netherlands-in-numbers-2024", "year": 2024 } ] }, { "code": "DMA", "name": "Dominica", "flag": "🇩🇲", "year": 2024, "stayover": 83976, "spend": 1231, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.45, "ota_pen": 0.4, "str_interm": 0.7, "vrbo_skew": 1.1, "arche": "Eco/nature (anglophone) — \"Nature Isle\"; fragmented small-lodge/villa stock, not a resort-mega market", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "moderate", "note": "Stayover = 83,976 for CY2024 (Discover Dominica Authority, +13% YoY), rebounding post-Maria/COVID from 14,888 (2021) and 60,704 (2022) — this is a nation stat, no sub-region split needed. Spend anchored to the only sourced per-visitor split found: IMF-cited EC$3,323 stayover spend (2019, pre-COVID) vs EC$87 for cruise pax, = ~$1,231 USD at the fixed EC$2.70 peg; Dominica's own CSO Annual Travel Report series (which had expenditure/accommodation detail) stops at 2010, so no fresher official split exists — treated as a conservative sourced anchor, hence confidence=moderate not high. Lodging stock is fragmented (~117 small hotels/guesthouses/eco-lodges, ~1,100 rooms, pre-Maria) plus a few flagship resorts (Secret Bay, InterContinental/Kempinski Cabrits, Jungle Bay), so str_share is set well above the mega-resort archetype to reflect villa/guesthouse/eco-lodge weight; ota_pen kept moderate (independent boutique hotels lean on Booking.com but volumes are small/niche, not US-package-resort scale); str_interm below UHNW-villa/mainstream levels since a meaningful share of eco-lodge and villa bookings route through tour operators/direct rather than Airbnb/Vrbo/Booking.", "sources": [ { "label": "Discover Dominica Authority stayover arrivals 2024 (83,976, +13% YoY) via TravelPulse", "url": "https://www.travelpulse.com/news/destinations/dominica-reports-increased-arrivals-amidst-flight-and-hotel-expansion", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "IMF eLibrary — Tourism Sector Landscape (Dominica): EC$3,323 stayover spend vs EC$87 cruise spend, 2019", "url": "https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/018/2023/061/article-A001-en.pdf", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "IMF Article IV Country Report — Dominica (tourism 12.2% of GDP 2019, ~10.5% of employment)", "url": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2023/English/1DMAEA2023002.ashx", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "Dom767 — Dominica's Tourism Industry overview (accommodation stock ~1,100 rooms/117 providers pre-Maria; receipts range)", "url": "https://www.dom767.com/dompedia/dominicas-tourism-industry/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Writeups24 — 13% growth in Dominica stayover arrivals 2024 (2022: 60,704; 2021: 14,888 corroborating trajectory)", "url": "https://writeups24.com/news/13-growth-recorded-in-stay-over-arrivals-for-dominica-in-2024", "year": 2025 } ] }, { "code": "BHS", "name": "Bahamas", "flag": "🇧🇸", "year": 2024, "stayover": 1700000, "spend": 2800, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "sourced", "str_share": 0.22, "ota_pen": 0.4, "str_interm": 0.85, "vrbo_skew": 0.9, "arche": "All-inclusive mega + out-islands", "group": "mega", "bookable": true, "confidence": "high", "note": "Non-cruise air/stopover arrivals held flat at ~1.7M in 2024 (matching 2023, per Ministry of Tourism data reported in TourismToday). Per-visitor total-trip spend of $2,800 (Deputy PM/Tourism Min. Chester Cooper, avg 6-7 day stay, 2024) triangulates against MOT director-general Latia Duncombe's 2023 figure of $2,595.57/trip and the officially cited $5.39bn total 2023 all-visitor spend (stopover+cruise+day) -- 1.7M x $2,595 + ~7.8M cruise pax x ~$130 reconciles closely to that total, so the anchor is internally consistent. Scope: Nassau/Paradise Island + Freeport (Grand Bahama) form a branded resort-casino core (Atlantis, Baha Mar, Sandals, Grand Hyatt) driving the all-inclusive-mega archetype, while the Out Islands (Exuma, Abaco, Eleuthera, Harbour Island) carry a real villa/vacation-rental layer (~3,750 active Airbnb/Vrbo listings per Airbtics 2025, 52% occupancy) that lifts str_share modestly above the pure-AI-mega floor. ota_pen set mid-range (0.40) for the heavier US-market OTA/direct mix vs. DR/JAM's European package-tour model; str_interm set high (0.85) since Bahamas STR is mainstream-platform-driven (Airbnb/Vrbo/Booking), not concierge-agency like SBH/AXA.", "sources": [ { "label": "Bahamas Ministry of Tourism 2024 arrivals (1.7M+ foreign air arrivals, matching 2023) via TourismToday", "url": "https://www.tourismtoday.com/news/bahamas-drives-unprecedented-tourism-growth-welcoming-more-11-million-visitors-2024", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "The Tribune (Tribune242) -- MOT director-general Latia Duncombe: 2023 stopover spend $2,595.57/trip vs $2,070 in 2019; total 2023 all-visitor spend $5.39bn", "url": "http://www.tribune242.com/news/2024/jul/05/stopover-tourist-spend-rises-25/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "EW News -- Deputy PM/Tourism Min. Chester Cooper: 2024 avg stopover visitor spend $2,800 (6-7 day stay); cruise visitor spend ~$130/person", "url": "https://ewnews.com/tourism-minister-2024-banner-year-for-tourism-visitor-spending-increased/", "year": 2025 }, { "label": "Airbtics -- Bahamas short-term rental market: ~3,750 active Airbnb/Vrbo listings, 52% occupancy, $48K median annual revenue", "url": "https://airbtics.com/annual-airbnb-revenue-in-the-bahamas-", "year": 2025 } ] }, { "code": "TTO", "name": "Trinidad and Tobago", "flag": "🇹🇹", "year": 2024, "spend_src": "proxy", "str_share": 0.18, "ota_pen": 0.32, "str_interm": 0.7, "vrbo_skew": 0.9, "arche": "Business + Carnival stopover (Trinidad, VFR-heavy) / beach-leisure guesthouse-villa mix (Tobago) — hotel-dominated dual-island market, low STR penetration", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "stayover": 486000, "spend": 1000, "lodging_override": null, "note": "Dual-market scope: Trinidad = business/energy-sector + Carnival stopover travel with a large VFR component (Guyana/Venezuela/diaspora, historically top-5 source markets); Tobago = smaller beach-leisure market with a traditional guesthouse/villa economy. Stayover = 486,000 (2024, +8.5% YoY per national stats aggregator, now above the ~480k 2019 pre-pandemic baseline in World Bank/UNWTO series) — no cruise passengers included (T&T logged 200k+ cruise pax separately in the 2023/24 season). Spend is a triangulated proxy, not one official \"average trip spend\" survey: World Bank tourism-receipts/arrivals implied ~US$1,000/visitor in 2019 (last year with receipts data), cross-checked against a 2024 Cricket World Cup per-person figure of US$833 (short trip, official ministry statement) and a Carnival charter-cruise segment figure of US$2,500 (small premium outlier, not representative) — $1,000 used as the blended base-case. Hotel stock (590 properties / 7,731 rooms, ~87:13 Trinidad:Tobago split by 2024 room-tax revenue) dwarfs the ~1,300-1,400 active STR listings tracked by AirDNA/Airbtics (blended ADR reported as low as US$35/night, suggesting mostly budget/unlicensed units), so str_share is set low; ota_pen is set below the US-resort archetype given heavy VFR/business/direct-corporate booking patterns in Trinidad (similar logic to the French-DOM downward adjustment). CSO/Ministry of Tourism primary pages returned 403 on direct fetch, so figures lean on secondary aggregators (statbase.org, tourismanalytics.com) corroborated against World Bank/UNWTO and a Newsday ministerial statement — confidence kept at moderate, not high.", "confidence": "moderate", "sources": [ { "label": "World Bank — International tourism, number of arrivals, Trinidad and Tobago (UNWTO-sourced series; last full year 2019 = 480k)", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/TTO/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL?format=json&per_page=20", "year": 2019 }, { "label": "World Bank — International tourism receipts, current US$, Trinidad and Tobago (2019 = $481m, implies ~$1,000/arrival)", "url": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/TTO/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.CD?format=json&per_page=20", "year": 2019 }, { "label": "Statbase — Trinidad & Tobago inbound tourism arrivals 2024 (486,000; +8.48% YoY vs 448,000 in 2023)", "url": "https://statbase.org/data/tto-inbound-tourism-arrivals/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Trinidad and Tobago Newsday — 'Mitchell: Tourism contributed $16b to GDP' (visitor spend by segment, hotel room-tax by island, CWC/Carnival spend detail)", "url": "https://newsday.co.tt/2024/10/23/mitchell-tourism-contributed-16b-to-gdp/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "AirDNA — Trinidad short-term rental market overview (active listings, ADR, occupancy, RevPAR)", "url": "https://www.airdna.co/vacation-rental-data/app/cu/default/trinidad/overview", "year": 2026 } ] }, { "code": "VCT", "name": "St. Vincent & the Grenadines", "flag": "🇻🇨", "year": 2024, "stayover": 101471, "spend": 1450, "lodging_override": null, "spend_src": "proxy", "str_share": 0.4, "ota_pen": 0.35, "str_interm": 0.62, "vrbo_skew": 1.3, "arche": "Grenadines yacht-charter + UHNW villa (Mustique/Canouan/Bequia) hybrid, plus new mainland all-inclusive mega (Sandals, opened Mar-2024)", "group": "target", "bookable": true, "confidence": "low", "note": "Stayover=101,471 for 2024 is a well-corroborated primary-adjacent figure (SVG Tourism Authority data, +25.6% YoY, +39% vs 2019's 72,983 confirmed on the govt Statistical Office site) — critically, SVG's own methodology tracks \"yacht visitors\" as a SEPARATE arrival category from \"stay-over,\" so this stayover count is already land-based lodging only and needed no further charter haircut/lodging_override. Spend ($1,450/visitor) is an unsourced CTO-region proxy (Grenada/Dominica-tier baseline, nudged up for the 2024 mix-shift toward all-inclusive package tourism) since the SVGTA's own \"Tourism Expenditure Survey\" exists but no published per-visitor results were retrievable — mark spend_src=proxy/confidence=low accordingly. Params reflect a hybrid structure: Grenadines islands (Bequia, Canouan, Mustique, Union, Palm/Petit St Vincent) run on UHNW villa concierge-agency bookings (low str_interm, Vrbo-skewed) and bareboat/crewed yacht charters entirely outside the 4 tracked platforms, while Sandals Saint Vincent (301 rooms, opened Mar-27-2024) is a large, single-property, direct/tour-operator-heavy all-inclusive add that pulls blended ota_pen down and str_share down versus a pure-Grenadines-only estimate. Multi-island scope: figures are state-wide (mainland St Vincent + all Grenadines cays combined) — no official split was found between mainland-resort and Grenadines-yacht/villa stayover sub-counts.", "sources": [ { "label": "SVG Statistical Office – Travel & Tourism (methodology: stay-over vs same-day vs cruise vs yacht visitors as separate categories; 2019 baseline 72,983 stay-overs)", "url": "https://stats.gov.vc/subjects/travel-and-tourism/", "year": 2019 }, { "label": "St Vincent Times – \"St Vincent 25% Surge\": stayover arrivals reached 101,471 in 2024, first time over 100,000, +25.6% YoY", "url": "https://www.stvincenttimes.com/st-vincent-25-surge-stayover-arrivals-2024/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Caribbean National Weekly – SVG record tourism growth 2024 (101,471 stayovers, +25.6% YoY, +39% vs 2019; Sandals Mar-2024 opening + airlift expansion cited as drivers)", "url": "https://www.caribbeannationalweekly.com/posts/st-vincent-and-the-grenadines-sees-record-tourism-growth-in-2024", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "SVG Tourism Authority – official statistics portal (confirms stay-over/same-day/cruise/yacht visitor categories tracked separately)", "url": "http://tourism.gov.vc/tourism/index.php/svg-facts/71-statistics", "year": 2024 } ] }, { "code": "CUB", "name": "Cuba", "flag": "🇨🇺", "year": 2024, "stayover": 2200000, "spend": 900, "spend_src": "proxy", "lodging_override": null, "str_share": 0.1, "ota_pen": 0.15, "str_interm": 0.35, "vrbo_skew": 0.6, "arche": "embargo_state_resort_mega", "group": "mega", "bookable": false, "confidence": "low", "note": "DATA-ONLY, not bookable: OFAC embargo blocks Stripe processing and severely restricts Booking.com/Expedia integration with Cuban state-owned hotels, and official tourism-revenue reporting is internally inconsistent (2023 receipts cited as $1.216B by one Cuba-economy outlet vs. an implied $2.5B/$1,024-per-visitor by an aggregator citing the same ONEI base) — used stayover=2.2M (2024, MINTUR/ONEI via OnCubaNews, down 9.6% from 2.44M in 2023, worst non-COVID year in 17) x a blended spend proxy of $900, likely still understating true total-trip spend since much casa-particulares cash changes hands outside state hard-currency accounting. Lodging skews overwhelmingly toward the ~77,000-room state/JV all-inclusive hotel stock (Meliá, Iberostar, Gaviota; ~25% occupancy in 2024) versus a much smaller ~30,000-property casa-particulares segment (~1M room-nights/yr), so str_share is set below even the all-inclusive-mega heuristic floor (0.10). ota_pen and str_interm are held low (0.15 / 0.35) to reflect embargo-suppressed Booking/Expedia access and heavy reliance on European/Canadian tour-operator packages and informal/direct booking rather than the big-four platforms; vrbo_skew is Airbnb-dominated (0.6) since Vrbo/HomeAway has negligible Cuba presence. The fee number is real and directionally usable for sizing, but every input here should be treated as a soft estimate pending better primary access (direct ONEI PDF fetch failed on cert error).", "sources": [ { "label": "OnCubaNews — Cuba recibió 2.2 millones de turistas en 2024, 9.6% menos que 2023 (MINTUR/ONEI data)", "url": "https://oncubanews.com/cuba/economia/turismo/cuba-recibio-22-millones-de-visitantes-internacionales-en-2024-la-peor-tasa-en-17-anos-sin-contar-la-covid/", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Cuba Siglo 21 — Tourism revenue collapse: $3.185B (2019) to $1.216B (2023); ~25% hotel occupancy; source-market breakdown", "url": "https://cubasiglo21.com/cuba-tourism-shuts-down-record-drop-in-visitors-and-revenues/", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "Gitnux — Cuba Tourism Statistics: $1,024/visitor spend (2023); 77,000 hotel rooms vs 30,000+ licensed casas particulares (~1M room-nights/yr)", "url": "https://gitnux.org/cuba-tourism-statistics/", "year": 2023 }, { "label": "Wikipedia — Tourism in Cuba: casas particulares structure/pricing, historical spend-per-visitor trend, 2024 9.6% decline confirmation", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Cuba", "year": 2024 } ] }, { "code": "HTI", "name": "Haiti", "flag": "🇭🇹", "year": 2019, "spend_src": "proxy", "str_share": 0.12, "ota_pen": 0.25, "str_interm": 0.5, "vrbo_skew": 1, "arche": "Data-only / non-bookable (security-crisis collapse)", "group": "target", "bookable": false, "note": "Haiti's stats are effectively collapsed: no WB/UNWTO arrivals data exists since 2019 (938k, already down from 1.33M in 2018 amid the \"peyi lòk\" unrest), and the main gateway (Toussaint Louverture, Port-au-Prince) has been closed to US commercial carriers since Nov 2024 (FAA ban after gang gunfire hit a Spirit A320), with only sporadic domestic Sunrise Airways service since — current stayover leisure volume is effectively near-zero. Anchor uses the last full pre-collapse year (2019 arrivals) x spend proxied from 2018 WB tourism receipts ($620M) / 2018 arrivals (1.33M) ≈ $465/visitor, since no per-visitor survey figure exists. Params are set low because formal hotel stock is a handful of business/NGO-oriented properties (Marriott PaP, Karibe, El Rancho) with limited OTA listing depth and almost no public Airbnb/Vrbo STR market given the security climate, and a large share of historical arrivals are Haitian-diaspora VFR travelers who stay with family rather than book paid lodging. This is a historical-baseline sizing exercise, not a current forecast — bookable=false is the separate travel-advisory business gate.", "confidence": "low", "stayover": 938000, "spend": 465, "lodging_override": null, "sources": [ { "label": "World Bank – International tourism, number of arrivals (Haiti)", "url": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL?locations=HT", "year": 2019 }, { "label": "World Bank – International tourism, receipts, current US$ (Haiti)", "url": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.CD?locations=HT", "year": 2018 }, { "label": "Wikipedia – Toussaint Louverture International Airport (2024 gang-violence closures / FAA flight ban)", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toussaint_Louverture_International_Airport", "year": 2024 }, { "label": "Wikipedia – Tourism in Haiti (historical arrivals/revenue context)", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Haiti", "year": 2012 } ] } ]